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In economics, Kondratiev waves, also referred to as the K-waves, are the description of an alleged regular S-shaped cycle in the modern world economy. Fifty to sixty years in length, it consists of an alternation of periods of high sectoral growth with periods of slower growth. The pattern is more visible in international production data than in individual national economies and concerns output rather than prices.
They were developed by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1931) in the 1920s. His ideas were endorsed by Joseph Schumpeter in the 1930s, who named the pattern after Kondratiev. The theory hypothesized the existence of very long-run macroeconomic and price cycles, originally estimated to last 50-54 years. Since first originated, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data.
According to Kondratiev's theory, K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.
The term kondratiev waves is a periodic movement in the economic development, with periods of 45-60 years. Long and deep depressions are only interrupted by short and weak booms. The phenomena has been given its empirical appelation after Nikolai Kondratiev who in 1926 tried to prove the existence of such a cyclic economic pattern of development.
He constructed his theory on the foundations of a study of 36 statistical series av price, volume and value from USA, Great Britain, France and Germany from periods of time after 1840 or 1780. He extracted 3 waves from his datamaterial.
1. Mid 1840s to
2.
3.
External links
http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/business.htm
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