Timeline of the future in forecasts - Definition

Prominent writers, social thinkers, politicians and scientists have all shared with the world their visions of the future. Some of these individual predictions have been completely off the mark, some have been accurate. However, taken together, they paint a picture of changing perceptions about various aspects of the future in our society and provide insight into aspirations and beliefs of their authors. Also, sometimes such predictions appear realistic enough to warrant a closer look at them.

Below is a comprehensive list of major future events, including technological inventions and scientific advances, that were repeatedly predicted by various authors, but that have not yet come into being. The list is centered not around the authors, but around specific events. In most cases alternative time estimates offered by other authors are provided. Since the futurist authors come from very different backgrounds (academic research, science fiction writing, politics, philosophy), the accuracy, realism and relevancy of their forecasts vary. The qualifications and bias of different authors are explained.

The list of future events (structured by topic)

currently technological forecasts only

Artificial intelligence and robotics

• Emotional robots
  • 2010 - Cynthia Breazeal, 2004 [1] (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/race.html) - many people have criticized MIT forecasts in robotics as overoptimistic
• Robots capable of manual labour tasks
  • 2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004 [2] (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3897583.stm)
  • 2029 - robots performing most household tasks, Dr. Joanne Pransky, a robotics expert [3] (http://www.membrana.ru/articles/global/2004/10/27/233300.html)
  • 2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain, 2003 [4] (http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm)
  • 2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot [5] (http://features.engadget.com/entry/8154940951659251/)
• Robots beat human world champions in soccer
  • 2050 - RoboCup mission statement, 1997 [6] (http://www.robocup.org/)
• AI reaches the human level
  • 2019 - Ray Kurzweil, 1999
  • 2020 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2050 - Hans Moravec, 1999 [7] (http://articles.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_20/ai_55926976)

Biology

• Artificial eyes
  • 2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004) [8] (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-10/ddoe-dlu101404.php)
• Use of animal organs for transplantation
  • 2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that aren't rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004)
  • 2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source)
• Rejuvenation of mammals
  • 2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice [9] (http://www.nickbostrom.com/fable/dragon.html#_ftn2)
• Cloning of dinosaurs
  • 2023 - (Arthur C. Clarke, 2001)

Communications

• All communications are IP-based
  • 2008 - internal company plans (British Telecom, 2004)
  • 2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004 [10] (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3832527.stm)

Nanotechnology

• Nanomachines used in fabrics and armor
  • 2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004
• Universal replicator is developed
  • 2040 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001

Space

• Space flights become available to the general public
  • 2011 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 - originally Clarke expected it to happen by 2001 (described in 2001: A Space Odyssey)
  • Progress so far: First space tourist, Dennis Tito flew to space on June 5th, 2001. First privately-funded space flight occurred on June 21, 2004, when SpaceShipOne was piloted by Mike Melvill to the hight of 100 km.
  • See also: private spaceflight
• Space hotel under construction
  • 2006-2008 - plans of American motel tycoon Robert Bigelow, 2004 [11] (http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=24&theme=&usrsess=1&id=45758) [12] (http://www.lasvegasmercury.com/2004/MERC-Jul-08-Thu-2004/24250261.html)
  • 2014 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2024 - "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004 [13] (http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml)
• Space elevator
  • 2020 - Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004 [14] (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&u=/ap/20040625/ap_on_sc/space_elevator_3&printer=1)
  • Arthur C. Clarke once said that the space elevator "will be built about 10 years after everybody stops laughing".
• Human landing on Mars
  • 2021 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2030 - NASA observer predictions, 2004
• Asteroid mining
  • 2024 - Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004 [15] (http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,2697,65729,00.html?tw=wn_1techhead).
• Near light-speed travel
  • 2095 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: "Space drive, a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space time"

Virtual Reality

• Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available
  • 2025 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001

See also

• Predictions for the 21st century
• Famous predictions